Thursday, May 9, 2013

Expected Value Exercise 3



Expected Value Exercise 3

An investment opportunity has two possible outcomes. The expected value of the investment opportunity is $250.  One outcome yields a $100 payoff and has a probability of 0.25.   

What is the payoff of the other outcome?

5 comments:

  1. the payoff of the other outcome=
    250-(0.25x$100)=225
    --> 225:0,75= 300

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  2. Known :
    The Expected Value of investment is $250
    One probability of 0.25 (0.25 x 100% = 25%) has outcome yields $ 100
    Solutions:
    So the other probability = 100 % - 25 % = 75%
    So the other outcome is :
    Expected Value = ( First outcome known) (Probability of first outcome known) + (Unknown outcome) (Probability of unknown outcome)
    $ 250 = ( $ 100 * 0.25 ) + ( x * 0.75 )
    0.75 x = $ 250 - $ 25
    0.75 x = $ 225
    X = $ 225 / 0.75
    X = $ 300
    So the other probability is 0.75 with $ 300 possible outcome

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  3. EV = 250
    Probability =1

    First Outcome :
    probability = 0.24, payoff = 100
    EV of first outcome only = (0.25 x 100 ) = 25

    Probability of 2nd outcome =? = 1-0.25 = 0.75
    2nd Payoff : 250-25 = 225 (: 0.75) = $300

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  4. diketahui:
    Expected value = $ 250
    P =0,25
    pay off = 100

    E(v) = (p)(x)
    = o,25 (100)
    E(v)= 25

    for other outcomes with has 1 outcome - 0,25 = 0,75. so the other outcome is
    250-25 =225/0,75 = $ 300

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  5. ANSWER:

    100 x 0.25 + B x 0.75= 250
    225 = 0.75 B
    B = 300

    ReplyDelete